World On Edge: Is The US Nuclear Test Comeback Pushing Us Toward World War 3? GeoInflux

A potential restart of US nuclear test after 33 years, experts warn of a renewed Cold War tensions, unravel the CTBT and ignite a new nuclear arms race. GeoInflux explains the facts, the real motive behind Trump’s directive, and what this means for global security.

The US is weighing a return to explosive nuclear testing, ending three decades of restraint and undermining the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). Since 1992, only North Korea has tested, making this move historic and risky.

Washington claims Russia and China are secretly testing, though experts find no proof. The real trigger may be Russia’s Burevestnik Nuclear Missile, a system the US views as a strategic threat. One US test could collapse the CTBT, prompting China, India, and Pakistan to follow, while Iran might justify new nuclear ambitions.

Analysts warn this would launch a new global arms race driven by advanced, unpredictable technologies, raising the risk of miscalculation. The US already ensures deterrence through its Stockpile Stewardship Program. Restarting tests would be political, not technical—and could mark the beginning of a dangerous new nuclear era.

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Table of Contents

Why Is the US Nuclear Test Restart Causing Global Alarm?

The announcement that the United States may restart nuclear testing has shaken global security circles. The move, reportedly initiated under Donald Trump, would reverse a 33-year-old moratorium and signal the collapse of decades of nuclear restraint.

Since 1992, the US has relied on the Stockpile Stewardship Program (SSP) to ensure its arsenal’s reliability without detonations. Restarting live tests now threatens to undo this legacy and re-normalize nuclear weapons as ordinary tools of war.

Experts warn this could spark a new nuclear arms race, collapsing the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) and triggering a cascade of tests by other powers.

What Did Donald Trump Announce About Nuclear Testing?

Donald Trump reportedly directed the Pentagon to prepare for US nuclear test restart operations on “equal terms” with other powers. His reasoning: Russia and China are allegedly conducting secret tests to gain an advantage.

But there’s no credible evidence to support these claims. Apart from North Korea, no nation has conducted an explosive nuclear test since the 1990s. This makes the US move less about parity and more about politics. Resuming testing would send a clear geopolitical signal that nuclear restraint is over.

When Was the Last US Nuclear Test, and What Is the CTBT?

The last US nuclear detonation took place in September 1992 at the Nevada Test Site. Four years later, the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) was signed to ban all nuclear explosions. The US signed but never ratified it, choosing voluntary compliance instead.

For three decades, this self-restraint has served as the backbone of global stability. A single US test today would effectively collapse the CTBT, shattering a core non-proliferation norm that has held the world back from nuclear brinkmanship.

Will the US Nuclear Test Restart Collapse the CTBT?

Yes, almost certainly. The CTBT relies not on enforcement but on political will. If the US resumes testing, the treaty loses all credibility. Once the global leader in arms control abandons restraint, others will follow.

China and Russia could resume tests to validate new warhead designs.
India and Pakistan might face domestic pressure to upgrade their arsenals, reigniting the South Asian arms race.
Iran could seize the moment to justify its first nuclear test, destabilizing the Middle East.

The collapse would replace decades of deterrence with uncertainty and risk.

Would Nuclear Testing Normalize the Use of Atomic Weapons?

Stopping nuclear tests helped create a moral barrier separating nuclear weapons from conventional warfare. Restarting them breaks that taboo. It makes nuclear weapons seem usable, even tactical, lowering the threshold for conflict escalation.

That’s the long-term danger: the normalization of nuclear activity, where these weapons are again seen as tools to refine rather than threats to humanity.

Is Russia’s Burevestnik Missile the Real Trigger Behind the US Move?

Behind the political rhetoric lies a strategic fear: Russia’s Burevestnik Nuclear Missile. Also called 9M730 Burevestnik or Skyfall, it’s a nuclear-powered cruise missile with virtually unlimited range.

Unlike a warhead test, this missile uses a mini-reactor for propulsion, allowing it to fly for days and attack from unexpected directions. The US fears it could evade its missile defenses.

This may be the true driver behind Washington’s push to restart testing, to develop new warheads and delivery systems that can counter the Burevestnik threat.

What Happens If the CTBT Collapses?

If the CTBT falls, non-testing states will face impossible strategic choices:

India and Pakistan will likely resume testing to modernize deterrence.
Iran could declare itself a nuclear power, citing the death of global non-proliferation norms.
Israel, North Korea, and China might use the moment to advance new designs.

This won’t be about numbers. It will be about speed, accuracy, and survivability, increasing the risk of accidental or miscalculated war.

Recap: The Nuclear Testing Crisis at a Glance

Policy Shift	Claimed Justification	Reality	Consequence
US Nuclear Test Restart	Russia & China are secretly testing	No verified tests since 1990s	CTBT collapse, renewed arms race
Focus on Burevestnik	Missile evades US defenses	Nuclear propulsion, not explosive test	Accelerates new arms race tech
Global Moratorium	Held since 1992	Enforced via SSP and trust	Broken norm, global destabilization

Frequently Asked Questions

1. Why Did the US Stop Nuclear Testing in 1992?

The US halted nuclear testing after the Cold War due to public opposition and environmental concerns. The Stockpile Stewardship Program replaced explosive tests with simulations, ensuring reliability without detonations. This self-imposed moratorium became a model of restraint even without CTBT ratification.

2. How Is a Nuclear-Powered Missile Different from a Nuclear Weapon Test?

A nuclear weapon test is a full detonation of a warhead. A nuclear-powered missile like the Burevestnik uses a tiny reactor for propulsion, not explosion. One refines delivery technology, the other validates destruction capability. Restarting explosive tests is far more provocative and destabilizing.

3. Which Countries Haven’t Ratified the CTBT?

Out of 44 key “Annex 2” states, eight remain holdouts: the US, China, Iran, Israel, Egypt, North Korea, India, and Pakistan. Their refusal keeps the treaty from taking effect, leaving the global ban on shaky political ground.

4. How Would a US Test Restart Affect Iran’s Nuclear Program?

A US test would destroy any pressure on Iran to stay non-nuclear. Tehran could claim that major powers have abandoned restraint, using it as cover to test its own weapon. This would likely trigger a rapid nuclearization of the Middle East.

5. Can the US Maintain Its Arsenal Without Live Testing?

Yes. The Stockpile Stewardship Program has proven effective for 30 years. Using supercomputers, simulations, and subcritical tests, it keeps warheads safe and reliable. Most experts agree there’s no technical need for new explosions, only political motives.

6. What’s the Risk of Accidental Nuclear War in a New Arms Race?

With faster delivery systems and shorter warning times, the risk of false alarms rises. Miscommunication or a technical glitch could trigger catastrophic retaliation. The more nations test and expand arsenals, the greater the chance of an irreversible mistake.

End Note: The End of Nuclear Restraint

The US nuclear test restart debate marks the end of a fragile era of restraint. The justification for resuming tests is weak, but the consequences are grave: the collapse of the CTBT, the rise of new nuclear states, and a return to global brinkmanship. The next test won’t just shake the desert, it could shake the entire world order.